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By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman The 2024 Triple Crown reachesits pinnacle this Saturday with the 156th running of the $2 million Belmont Stakes(G1). Due to renovations takingplace at Belmont Park, this year's Belmont has been moved to Saratoga andshortened from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles. The result is a field of impressivequality: seven graded stakes winners, including the Kentucky Derby (G1) andPreakness (G1) champs, plus a couple of colts who have placed in multiplegraded stakes and an undefeated up-and-comer. I've been pondering theBelmont field for days, even before final entries were released, and have goneback and forth on my top choice. At one time or another I've seriouslyconsidered picking five different horses. I gave a long look to Wood Memorial(G2) winner #2 Resilience (10-1),who made a strong mid-race move in the Kentucky Derby before finishing sixth,and also to Remsen (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2) hero #6 Dornoch (15-1), who ran into plenty of trouble when breakingfrom the rail in the Kentucky Derby and finishing tenth. But ultimately, I consideredthe fact neither Resilience nor Dornoch have posted a Beyer Speed Figure higherthan 91 and decided to look elsewhere for the winner. I think both colts havestrong chances to finish in the top four this Saturday, but claiming top honorsagainst a field of this caliber will likely require a large step forward from aBeyer standpoint. I thought about keepingthings simple with #9 Sierra Leone (9-5),the morning line favorite after winning the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1)and finishing second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone is actuallytwo noses away from being undefeated, but I see a couple of possible chinks inhis armor. For starters, he's a deep closer who risks falling too far behind amodest Belmont pace. He got a great setup in the Kentucky Derby, which wasdominated by horses rallying from off the pace, and I actually wonder if 1 1/4miles is a hair longer than Sierra Leone wants to run. He has a habit oflugging in down the homestretch, and long distances may be exacerbating that tendency.
As of yesterday, I hadpenciled in #1 Seize the Grey (8-1)as my Belmont choice. The stoutly bred son of Arrogate has improved by leaps andbounds in recent starts for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-timewinner of the Belmont. After closing from no more than two lengths off the leadto win a fast-paced edition of the Pat Day Mile (G2) over a strong field, Seizethe Grey led all the way through honest fractions to win the Preakness by 2 1/4lengths over Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, earning a 100 Beyer SpeedFigure. I'm inclined to believe Seize the Grey can repeat that performance inthe Belmont, especially if he makes the lead again while breaking from therail.
But for better or worse, I'vesettled on #10 Mindframe (7-2) as myBelmont choice, even while acknowledging he has challenges to overcome. Forexample, he's never run in a graded stakes, and the last horse to win theBelmont in his graded stakes debut was Sarava in 2002.
However, Mindframe is thefastest Belmont entrant in terms of both Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speedratings, so those are big positives. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmontfour times since 2007, and Mindframe may have enough raw talent to givePletcher a fifth Belmont triumph.
I liked Mindframe's victoryin a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Kentucky Derby Day atChurchill Downs. There wasn't much speed in the field, so Mindframe made the frontthrough easy fractions of :24.65, :49.18, and 1:13.17 before acceleratingstrongly (final five-sixteenths of a mile in :30.00) to dominate by 7 1/2lengths under a hand ride. His fourth quarter-mile fraction was especially strongat :23.57.
Some bettors might beskeptical of Mindframe's performance because he escaped with such an easy lead,but there are two reasons why I'm not especially concerned about this. First, Idon't anticipate the Belmont pace being blazing; I think Seize the Grey willmake the front from the rail with Dornoch up close, but not applying pressure,and that could lead to a leisurely tempo.
Secondly, Mindframe isn't aneed-the-lead type, and he actually produced his strongest effort when settling2-3 lengths off a blazing pace in a sprint. Indeed, when Mindframe debuted in aseven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, he rated in fourthposition behind fractions of :21.92 and :44.44 before taking over to obliteratea next-out winner by 13 3/4 lengths. That runaway victory yielded a 103 BeyerSpeed Figure and a 106 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the 97s Mindframeearned for his allowance win.
I like the outside draw forMindframe in the Belmont, as it affords him the opportunity to work out a cleantracking trip outside and perhaps just behind Seize the Grey and Dornoch. Fromthere, he'll have every chance to shine under five-time Eclipse Award-winningjockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a two-time Belmont winner aboard Creator (2016) and MoDonegal (2022).
For the minor awards, #3 Mystik Dan (5-1) and #5 Antiquarian (12-1) are other logicalcontenders. Mystik Dan was game as could be when employing ground-savingtactics to win the Kentucky Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone, and he also ran wellwhen finishing second in the Preakness, but he's had a busy campaign and I dowonder if 1 1/4 miles might be a little longer than his best distance.
As for Antiquarian, he'simproving for Todd Pletcher and battled to a gritty victory in the Peter Pan(G3) last time out, but in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speedratings he's still a notch or two below the Belmont favorites, and he'll likelyneed a step forward to conquer Saturday's formidable field.
Selections
1st: Mindframe
2nd: Seize the Grey
3rd: Sierra Leone
4th: Resilience
Now it's your turn! Who doyou like in the Belmont Stakes?
Lock of the Week
As I sit writing this columnon Wednesday, I feel like I should briefly mention the Rehoboth S. taking placeat Delaware Park this afternoon. #10Alva Starr (3-5), winner of the Madison (G1) and runner-up in the DerbyCity Distaff (G1) in her last two starts, looks like an absolute lock to winthe six-furlong sprint.
Originally, nine fillies andmares were set to face Alva Starr in the Rehoboth. But six of them scratched,leaving only three to oppose the heavy favorite. None of them have ever earneda Beyer Speed Figure higher than 77, whereas Alva Starr has posted numbers inthe 96-100 ranges in five of her last six starts.
There won't be much value inbetting Alva Starr to win (she'll surely start at odds of 1-20), but if you'relooking for a trustworthy single in multi-race wagers, Alva Starr looksvirtually certain to secure her third stakes win of 2024 in the Rehoboth. I can'trecommend the last time I saw a horse who looked this unbeatable on paper.
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. fa*ger to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
