The New York Mets are taking a dramatically different approach this offseason, and it's a refreshing change of pace that might just pay off big time. Forget the high-risk, high-reward gambles of the past – it seems they're finally learning their lesson.
Under the leadership of David Stearns, the Mets' strategy has evolved. Year one was all about calculated risks with potentially undervalued players. Year two, many hoped, would center around acquiring a superstar like Juan Soto and building a dynasty. But this year? This year feels like a full-blown organizational reset. If the season started today, the team would look dramatically different from how they performed at the end of last year. In fact, it's not too far fetched to imagine the Mets looking like a completely different team by Opening Day, which would excite the fan base.
Already, we've witnessed significant changes. The Mets have traded away fan-favorite Brandon Nimmo. There's a real possibility that star closer Edwin Diaz could depart, and the futures of Pete Alonso (a major question mark) and Jeff McNeil (likely on his way out) remain uncertain. But here's where it gets controversial... What about the starting rotation? It's arguably the most crucial aspect of the team. In previous seasons, Stearns demonstrated a willingness to take chances on pitchers with upside. But this year, refreshingly, they weren't even in the running for two free agents who signed deals earlier today.
Let's be honest: in years past, Alek Manoah and Cody Ponce would have been precisely the types of players the Mets would have aggressively pursued. No doubt, they would’ve been desirable targets for the Mets in past years. So what changed?
Alek Manoah's story is a cautionary tale. He went from being a Cy Young contender to… well, something far less impressive. This is precisely the kind of reclamation project Stearns seemed drawn to in previous years. The Los Angeles Angels snagged him for just under $2 million (https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1995979067640750472) . It's a low-risk gamble with the potential for a huge reward.
But here's the thing: Manoah hasn't looked sharp in seasons. He didn't pitch a single inning in the majors last year and only appeared in 10 minor league games for the Toronto Blue Jays. He even ended up with the Atlanta Braves but never saw any game action. The Mets seem to have recognized that there are better, safer ways to improve their pitching staff.
Now, let's talk about Cody Ponce. His trajectory is heading in the opposite direction. After dominating in Korea (17-1 record, 1.89 ERA, and a stellar 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings), the Toronto Blue Jays – the same team that moved on from Manoah – are paying him a hefty $30 million over three years (https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1996001377848307801) . And this is the part most people miss... Why are the Blue Jays investing so heavily in a player with limited MLB experience, even coming off a great year overseas? This is where things get interesting.
Manoah, as a low-cost flyer, would have been a perfect fit as rotation depth and a long reliever option in the past two seasons. Ponce, on the other hand, would have been the kind of player the Mets might have bought into based solely on his dazzling performance overseas. It's worth noting that Stearns actually traded Ponce when he was a minor leaguer in the Milwaukee Brewers organization years ago. A reunion would have been a unique follow-up to the Devin Williams situation. But here's the controversial part: is it really a good idea to invest heavily in a player based on success in a league with a lower level of competition than MLB? Some analysts point to the adjustment period required for players transitioning from international leagues, and the lack of guaranteed success.
The Mets already possess ample MLB starting pitching depth, making a gamble on Manoah unnecessary. While Ponce's numbers are impressive, he wouldn't significantly upgrade the Mets' rotation. They took a chance on Clay Holmes last year. At some point, you have to pursue more reliable options. As enticing as Ponce's stats are, he simply isn't a good fit for the Mets' current needs. The Blue Jays, who are looking to bolster an already strong rotation, make far more sense as a landing spot for him.
So, what do you think? Are the Mets right to avoid these types of gambles, or are they missing out on potential hidden gems? Are they becoming too risk-averse? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
