It’s been said I can argue either side of an issue. I take pride in that because that’s the process for making decisions. Weigh the upside and the downside and consider the cost and place your bet. So this is not merely a joke, me doing the hater’s guide to the NFFC Top 50 and now this rose-colored glasses version. These are the yes and no elevator pitches on the players so you can weigh them and decide who to actually draft.
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1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR, RB
While the Panthers are a bad team and that’s usually RB poison, we saw last year how McCaffrey’s receiving makes him game-script independent.
2. Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB
He’s too big to fail for the Giants. The owner and GM (and on the Giants the owner is really the GM) have to justify that crazy draft capital so having Barkley get 2,000 scrimmage yards is more important than winning.
3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, RB
Dallas had the best offense in football last year measured by yards per play and it was not close. So the Cowboys can easily lead the NFL in scoring, which will boost Elliott’s TDs.
4. Alvin Kamara, NO, RB
Kamara was actually hurt last year with a torn knee ligament, we’re now told. So expect at least 2018 efficiency in points per target, if not 2017.
5. Michael Thomas, NO, WR
In PPR, you don’t need to care about touchdowns. His 30 expected catches over what any WR1 can reasonably provide equals five scores.
6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, RB
Even 225 touches in that offense, assuming a healthy share are catches, is going to be extremely valuable in this offense. He easily could be 2017 Kamara.
7. Dalvin Cook, MIN, RB
He’s by far the most important player on the Vikings and the CBA effectively has ended holdouts so expect a 30-to-35% rate of touches/snaps.
8. Derrick Henry, TEN, RB
He is the focal point of an offense that did score 50 offensive touchdowns last year. Regress that to 45 and it’s hard to see Henry with much less than 15 scores.
9. Miles Sanders, PHI, RB
He can do it all and is an elite receiving threat on a team devoid of them. So 80-catches and 275-carries is a reasonable projection in a healthy season.
10. Davante Adams, GB, WR
How many guys can you guarantee will get 160 targets if healthy? Adams is one of two.
11. Joe Mixon, CIN, RB
Was actually fifth in receiving success rate among the 20 RBs with at least 100 targets the past two seasons and Joe Burrow proved in college he likes to throw to running backs.
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12. Josh Jacobs, LV, RB
Jacobs not being used as a receiver on first and second downs makes no sense. Even just that should get him about 40 catches.
13. Kenyan Drake, ARZ, RB
I’ve said before that the “Air Raid” is really the “Run Raid.” And the running back is second in the receiving progression on many of Arizona’s passing plays.
14. Austin Ekeler, LAC, RB
Ekeler’s so hyper-skilled, especially as a receiver, that it would be downright criminal not to make him the star of the team’s offense.
15. Aaron Jones, GB, RB
We’re so worried about A.J. Dillon beating out Jones for snaps that we haven’t noticed that Dillon hasn’t even beaten out Jamal Williams to be Jones’ backup.
16. Julio Jones, ATL, WR
Andre Johnson bounced back at age 31 at a similar size and Jones did lap the field with over 1,900 air yards last year.
17. Tyreek Hill, KC, WR
The most explosive player in the most explosive offense can’t be a bad pick.
18. Nick Chubb, CLE, RB
Most yards per rush first two years, minimum 400 carries, NFL history: Clinton Portis, Jim Brown, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, Eric Dickerson and Nick Chubb. (Guess the active player who is next in the comments.)
19. DeAndre Hopkins, ARZ, WR
The Cardinals want to be a 70% pass play team not 56% like in the second half of 2019, which is why they traded for Hopkins.
20. Chris Godwin, TB, WR
Godwin gets the shorter throws and was 11 yards per target anyway, just an unreal number. He’s Julian Edelman after the gamma rays.
21. Patrick Mahomes, KC, QB
Probably had a bad season last year, fantasy-wise, and was still fine. His 2018 season beckons.
22. Travis Kelce, KC, TE
One of four tight ends since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger with four 1,000-yard receiving seasons and the only one to do it all in a row.
23. Lamar Jackson, BAL, QB
No one is going to be shocked if Jackson rushes for 1,000 yards, just a crazy statement about a quarterback.
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24. George Kittle, SF, TE
He’s the only show in town.
25. James Conner, PIT, RB
He’s produced when healthy and we’re told that non-chronic injuries in football are not predictive.
26. Kenny Golladay, DET, WR
Third in air yards at 1,757 and Matthew Stafford was the QB4 when healthy.
27. Mike Evans, TB, WR
Was second in air yards and maybe BTom rady didn’t throw deep effectively because he had no one who could excel deep. Evans is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
28. Allen Robinson, CHI, WR
Fourth in air yards. Yes, they are Trubisky air yards but maybe they’ll be Foles’ in 2020. He’s just a competent QB away from contending for WR1.
29. Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB
If the Colts liked Marlon Mack, why even draft Taylor? Plus, this is probably the best run-blocking line in football.
30. Odell Beckham, CLE, WR
We’re supposed to believe that only Eli Manning could unlock OBJ? GTFO.
31. Todd Gurley, ATL, RB
He passed the physical and the Falcons backup RBs look worse than Gurley’s knees.
32. Chris Carson, SEA, RB
We keep saying Carson won’t be the bell cow and he keeps being one anyway on a team that wants to run.
33. Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB
Okay, you got me. I have nothing good to say about Fournette but he’ll sink like a stone now in ADP. Do not auto-pick Fournette!
34. D.J. Moore, CAR, WR
Has the ninth most receiving yards before age 23 season in NFL history behind Randy Moss, Josh Gordon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Evans, Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
35. Cooper Kupp, LAR, WR
His decline in the second half was merely due to knee fatigue inside the 18-month window from a full recovery from ACL surgery. That full recovery time has now passed.
36. Adam Thielen, MIN, WR
While the Vikings threw only 208 passes to wideouts last year, maybe Thielen gets all of them with Stefon Diggs out of town.
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37. Melvin Gordon, DEN, RB
The Broncos went out of their way to sign Gordon, so we must assume they’ll feature him.
38. JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT, WR
Still elite age-adjusted production and gets a pass last year given Pittsburgh’s QBs couldn’t pass.
39. Calvin Ridley, ATL, WR
The Falcons probably lead the NFL in WR targets again and the tree, when you think about it, is pretty narrow.
40. David Johnson, HOU, RB
Johnson is getting a ton of money and there’s no doubt that Bill O’Brien is going to want him to work.
41. Amari Cooper, DAL, WR
Why do we hammer Cooper for game-to-game consistency when we excuse Hill’s inconsistency? There’s nothing wrong with explosive receivers if you have playoff spots that are points only (as all league’s should).
42. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ, RB
Gase hates Bell so much he gave him a 32.55% share of touches/snaps through Week 16, or greater than Derrick Henry’s.
43. A.J. Brown, TEN, WR
You’d have to have been blindfolded in 2019 not to do everything possible to throw Brown way more passes this year.
44. Robert Woods, LAR, WR
Who cares about touchdowns in PPR and Woods also gets those scripted rushes.
45. DK Metcalf, SEA, WR
My data shows that big receivers like Metcalf are the top-targeted receivers on their teams four times out of five.
46. Mark Andrews, BAL, TE
The Ravens are going to have to throw more this year because they’ll be playing from behind more often due to regression.
47. Cam Akers, LAR, RB
Sean McVay knows he needs a Todd Gurley-like factor back to make his offense work and the Rams told you on draft day they believe that back is Akers.
48. Courtland Sutton, DEN, WR
Rookies aren’t going to steal market share from Sutton, who is still on path for 20-to-25% and probably closer to the latter.
49. D.J. Chark, JAC, WR
You get the feeling that the Jaguars are going to be the garbage-time kings of the NFL and it will be delicious to dumpster-dive Chark points against your opponents every week.
50. Terry McLaurin, WAS, WR
There is not one other even semi-reliable weapon on the Washington Football Team.
(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
