Tyreek Hill is an outlier. You can’t use the base rate with a player like this and say that his touchdowns are going to regress because he counts on scoring from a distance and doesn’t get many red zone targets.
With Hill, every target is a red zone target. Because every target holds the reasonable potential for a touchdown. He’s like the home-run hitter who always comes up with a runner in scoring position — himself.
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So let’s see if we can build a model that proves that Hill basically can’t be modeled. We’ll use the great Pro-Football-Reference database.
Since the start of the 2017 season, Hill has 10 touchdowns of 30-plus yards (eight from scrimmage). The next highest is Robby Anderson with five. No one else has more than four.
Okay, but that could just be a fluke. Surely the statement that a guy is an outlier in a very unusual skill — scoring from a distance — doesn’t necessarily prove he owns that skill and it’s not largely random/luck.
Except Hill already repeated the feat of scoring eight or more touchdowns from 30-plus yards, doing it in 2016 and 2017. Here are the guys in NFL history who have consecutive seasons of eight or more touchdowns of 30-plus yards.
- Lance Alworth (1965 and 1966)
- Bob Hayes (1965, 1966 and 1967)
- Jerry Rice (1986, 1987)
That’s it. Rice’s exploits are well known. But let’s take a moment to witness the unreal explosiveness of Lance Alworthand Bob Hayes.Understanding history helps us put great players into historical context.
What about players who had multiple seasons of eight or more 30-yard-plus touchdowns, but not consecutively? That gives us just one more name:
- Randy Moss (1998, 2000, 2003)
You know what all those guys have in common? You can see their busts in Canton. So Hill seems to be building a Hall of Fame resume. Remember, he only has two full years and has pulled this distance feat, something done just 39 times in history, in both years. And he already has two this year after just one week.
I’ll just say it straight out: Hill is one of the most explosive players in the history of professional football.
Should we expect touchdown regression in light of his reliance on scoring from distance?
Well, let’s look at his most comparable players.
Rice had 77 TDs over 30 yards (out of 207 total — he was pretty good!), with an average distance of 51 yards. That’s 37.2% of total touchdowns.
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Moss had 66 (average distance 49 yards) out of 156 (42.3%)
Hayes had 53 with an average distance of 51 yards, out of 73 TDs ( 72.7%).
Alworth 46 (average distance an absurd 57 yards) out of 87 total TDs (52.9%)
Hill right now has 18 of 23 touchdowns from 30-plus yards (78.3%). From scrimmage it’s 13 of 18 (72.2%). He’s the new Bob Hayes.
Another Hall of Famer who should be noted here is former Jet Don Maynard, with 50 of his career 88 touchdowns from 30-plus yards (56.8%).
Like Hill, Maynard had a big-armed QB in Joe Namath, maybe the biggest arm in NFL history. That propelled Maynard not only to distance touchdowns but to three-straight seasons averaging over 20 yards per catch.
Could Hill do this with Pat Mahomes and become a league winner?
Here’s average pass distance in Week 1 (air yards from scrimmage per attempt), according to the NFL:
1. Josh Allen 14.7
2. Mahomes 13.2
34. Alex Smith 3.2
That Smith number is not a misprint by the way. Among the nine receivers who averaged at least 20 yards per catch since 2000 is one who played for Hill’s coach, Andy Reid. DeSean Jackson in 2010 caught 47 passes in 14 games, averaging 22.5 yards per catch. That added up to 1056 receiving yards – prorated for 16 games, that’s 54 catches for 1,215 yards. Jackson’s QB that year, Michael Vick, averaged the third-most (9.5) air yards per pass attempt that year. I will eat a bug if Mahomes doesn’t at least match Vick’s 9.5 air yards per attempt.
Let’s add it all up and project Hill: 120 targets, 65 catches, an average gain of 20 yards for 1,300 receiving yards and, yes, eight distance scores (including punt returns) this year. Plus two or three from the red zone. Since he already has one, let’s call it three. So 65-1,300-11. Add 30 carries for about 200 yards, for 1,500 total yards from scrimmage. In half-point PPR that’s 248 points, which, since 2012, is a top 5 receiver.
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The bottom line with Hill is that he’s clearly an outlier and thus the general regression rules simply do not apply to him. This can be a dangerous way to think. I hardly ever think this way. But Hill demands it.
Remember, all the most electrifying talents in every sport defy the odds and beat regression models, which is what makes them great. The challenge is to identify these players rationally with numbers and historical comps. Hill isn’t fluke. Hill is fact.
(Top photo:Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
