This was the week for D’Andre Swift speculation. If it was going to happen this year, it was going to happen this week, off the bye. It happened. Swift is as good a bet at this point as any rookie running back in football going forward and I doubt you’ll have to pay a commensurate price. Could Adrian Peterson still drive us crazy? Of course. But no balls, no blue chips.
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Ronald Jones is a Top 10 back who only has the problem of struggling still as a receiver. But if you made him a zeroRB target, you are winning. He’s been far too efficient to be supplanted by Leonard Fournette.
Myles Gaskin finally converted his opportunities into production, which bodes really well for his future. There is no role a running back can have that he does not now command in the Miami offense, which is surprisingly okay.
I have no explanation for Mike Gesicki getting shut out. He brings wide receiver volatility to the TE position, one that is supposed to be more floor driven and less volatile.
Derrick Henry had been disappointing and most of it was due to not getting the big gains that inflated his yardage totals in 2019. In Week 6, he had plays of 94, 53, 34, 18 and 14 yards — that’s 213 scrimmage yards right there.
We just have to respect that Ryan Tannehill has proper support now with players, offensive line and coaching and, thus, is good. As I always say, this isn’t baseball. In our game, most of success depends on your environment. Is it 60%, 75%, 90%? Who knows. But Tannehill’s got it, whatever it is.
Jonnu Smith injured his ankle and to illustrate the above point, Anthony Firkser turned into an All-Pro (8-113-1). If Smith didn’t get hurt and did that, fantasy Twitter would be carving his HOF bust.
Deshaun Watson had the narrow passing tree going. It was all Will Fuller, Darren Fells and Brandin Cooks. Fells is like the better Jimmy Graham, meaning he can be slightly more than just a red zone specialist. How Cooks was on waiver wires last week is a mystery. Fuller has to be started every week — yes, he’s volatile, but you’re never surprised when he goes 6-123-1.
Is A.J. Green back from the dead? He was knocked this past week for giving up on an interception and for reportedly requesting a trade. He should be traded though, in reality. Tee Higgins is a Top 30 fantasy receiver without Green and so is Tyler Boyd. Joe Burrow, given the Colts were a leading defense (whatever that means in 2020), deserves some props even though his stat-line was meh. He was, wait for it, better in reality.
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Philip Rivers went nuts on the Bengals (not that hard to do) but T.Y. Hilton was invisible, save for a TD reception that was called back by penalty. I kept looking to see if he was hurt but nope. You have to bench Hilton, I’m sorry. Take the loss.
Julio Jones was healthy, I guess. If Jones is operating at full strength, Matt Ryan is a Top 10 and maybe even borderline Top 5 QB. If not, Ryan is trash. It’s that simple. It’s not just Julio’s stats, but how he dictates coverages. Calvin Ridley missed time with cramps.
Alexander Mattison is not a Dalvin Cook replacement. Cook is far more explosive and also a top receiving threat. Forget yards per carry. Mattison had a 33% career success rate on runs before Week 6 and Cook’s since 2019 was 43% (based on down and percentage of yards needed to set up the next down or get a first down). Mattison’s number has gone down now.
Justin Jefferson has three 100-yard receiving games in his first six games. Two other wide receivers in history have done that in one season: Amari Cooper and Jones, according to Pro-Football-Reference. (Randy Moss had one, because I know you’re wondering.)
This was the Cam Newton no one wanted this winter. His passes were mostly ghastly. The only player besides Newton who I would think about starting in fantasy is James White, and I need full PPR for that. Newton is like the poor man’s Lamar Jackson now — this year’s not 2019’s.
Tim Patrick is a good player with size and enough speed and Phillip Lindsay, as I said in August, is just better than Melvin Gordon. Lindsay is in the Top 10 all-time in yards per carry through his first two years, minimum 400 carries. Again, the guys in front of him: Clinton Portis, Jim Brown, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, Eric Dickerson…. But hey, let’s sign Melvin Gordon! John Elway is bad at his job. (Lindsay is a much stronger standard-format play, of course.)
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I don’t know why J.D. McKissic received 14 touches and six catches in a week when we were supposed to get an even bigger dosage of Antonio Gibson (who was Top 10 last week in market share).
The Giants win thrilled Jets fans for maybe the first time ever because the Jets fans want the No. 1 pick and Trevor Lawrence (Sam Darnold will be the next Ryan Tannehill, somewhere, except much younger). The Football Team and Jaguars are dangerous though.
Travis Fulgham is for real, after all. As I suspected. Zach Ertz is not merely nearly dead but really most sincerely dead. He’s heading for an MRI on his ankle or maybe on his cement shoes. Miles Sanders’ knee injury is the big story in the coming days.The Eagles are worried.
Jackson must never have shared his toys. No one in Baltimore is an exciting play and that definitely includes Mark Andrews. There are no exceptions to the laws of touchdown regression, kids. (Okay, maybe Tannehill — one guy.) Also this “triple double” stat with Jackson is dumb. Throwing for 100 yards? Who cares. Throwing for 300 and rushing for 100 — that’s a triple double.
Yeah, we all know that Baker Mayfield is not what we thought he was going to be after his rookie year. But Ben Roethlisberger, more importantly, is not the QB he was before his elbow injury, either. He has 400 passing yards the past two weeks combined and Chase Claypool bailed him out by himself in Week 5. The Steelers are a contender so need the depth at receiver that JuJu Smith-Schuster provides — but JuJu has no future in the Steel City.
Teddy Bridgewater is a much better story than he is a quarterback. The Bears have a good defense and not even great play calling is going to elevate Bridgewater, who has no plus attribute.
David Montgomery’s receiving and massive number of routes run now comparable with when Tarik Cohen was healthy makes him one of the game’s most underrated running backs. Is he good? Of course not. But who cares.
Very disappointed in Laviska Shenault on Sunday. I’m lacking confidence in their play-calling and offensive design. Shenault should never be that quiet given his talent.
(Top photo: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
